Charting Virtual Reality In 2016
Now that Oculus Rift pre-order mayhem is well underway, and Sony paves the way to launch Playstation VR, it’s time to look into a crystal ball and predict the future of virtual reality. What will happen to the anticipated technology in 2016? Not much, according to a recent report by Superdata Research—at least in the realms of PC and consoles. Instead, 71% of the consumer market will experience a virtual optical illusion using a mobile device, thanks to cheap peripherals. While devices may not go mainstream this year, 2016 will undoubtedly be the proof of concept year enthusiasts have been waiting for since Nintendo’s 1995 Virtual Boy.
Selling for $599 (plus shipping), the Oculus Rift has made many vocal adopters, who expected a $300 price entry, wary. Combined with the need for a powerful PC, estimated around $1000, and many consumers have opted to wait out purchasing PC VR. Curious consumers will instead choose mobile VR for a taste, or opt for cheaper console VR, exclusively Sony’s Playstation VR for now.
Sony recently revealed the total sale of nearly 36 million units globally, and sold 35 million PS4 games during the 2015 holiday season according to Forbes. An affordable entry point could drive a flock to purchase Playstation VR.
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But premium mobile devices and cheaper alternatives, such as Google Cardboard, will act as initiation for many smartphone owners. More than 2.5 billion people in Asia own smartphones, and will lead mobile VR adoption.This in part is due to the relative expense of powerful machines to run PC VR and, slow console acquisition in China due to former laws restricting their sale.
The market is showing interest in VR and Superdata projects a large industry in coming years. Virtual reality investments rose from a paltry $15 million in 2012 to $2 billion in 2015, and are expected to grow near $4 billion by 2018.
Not surprisingly larger game publishing companies have decided to wait to create VR games. In November 2015, Electronic Arts’ CFO Blake Jorgensen remained skeptical about VR due to small market adoption, stating reluctance about jumping in too quickly. Not a problem. While big time publishers remain on the fence, smaller independent studios are chugging ahead and placing bets on virtual reality, hoping to solidify their name by creating projects for the new devices.
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Movie studios, such as Lionsgate, are making films designed to take full advantage of VR. Other companie promise to deliver experiences in Sports and Travel. It may take a few years for non-gaming related content to dominate VR’s marketplace, but it’s likely that it will become standard and draw far-wider appeal. At MMOs.com we strongly believe in the attraction of virtual destinations, and believe something akin to Google Maps in a VR environment will inevitably launch (in our lifetime).
Superdata predicts the worldwide VR market will generate $5.1 billion by the end of 2016. It is a babystep. And I’m tempted to draw parallels between a product like Oculus Rift and the first generation of iPhones. It takes time for mass market adoption. But all indicators seem to suggest rapid growth in the VR sector.
Sources:
Superdata Research: Virtual Reality Market Brief
From Mega Man II to Ape Escape, I've been playing games for as long as I can remember. I've spent months killing porings in Ragnarok Online and more recently lived a second life in Eve Online. I usually play as gUMBY, gUMBLEoni, or gUMBLes in-game.
